Scots public sector revenue hits £60bn for first time

The Scottish Government said on Wednesday that Scotland’s public sector finances “are continuing to improve” — with total public sector revenue reaching £60 billion for the first time ever in 2017-18 “as the economy grew twice as fast as the UK at the start of 2018.”

Earlier this month, Scotland’s GDP for 2017-18 was estimated at £170.4 billion in total — or £31,367 per person — including a geographical share of UK extra-regio (offshore and overseas) economic activity.

The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures published on Wednesday show that onshore tax revenue increased by £2 billion in 2017-18, with offshore revenue increasing by more than £1 billion.

Including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue, Scotland’s £60 billion of public sector revenue is equivalent to £11,052 per person, £306 less than the UK average.

Total expenditure “for the benefit of Scotland” by the Scottish Government, UK Government and all other parts of the public sector was £73.4 billion.

This is equivalent to 9.3% of total UK public sector expenditure, and £13,530 per person, which is £1,576 per person greater than the UK average.

On Scotland’s Net Fiscal Balance for 2017-18 — the difference between total revenue and total public sector expenditure including capital investment — the GERS report said that including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, there was a deficit of £13.4 billion (7.9% of GDP), down from £14.5 billion in the 2016-17 financial year.

As a percentage of GDP, the net fiscal deficit was down from 8.9% in 2016-17 — and the lowest since 2011-12 — but higher than in the UK as a whole, where public sector net borrowing totalled 1.9% of GDP in 2017-18.

Finance Secretary Derek Mackay said: “The latest economic data points to an improving picture in Scotland.

“Our economy grew twice as fast as the UK in the most recent quarter, while unemployment remains close to its record low and confidence is returning to the oil and gas sector.

“Today’s figures show overall revenue in Scotland reaching £60 billion for the first time ever, underlining the fact that we have a productive and growing economy, despite the UK Government’s London centric economic policies.

“Meanwhile, Scottish exports of goods have increased by 12% over the past year — the fastest rate of growth of any nation in the UK — with huge potential for further expansion in key overseas markets.

“However, that export success and wider potential is directly threatened by the UK Government’s drive to take Scotland out of the world’s largest single market, which is around eight times bigger than the UK market alone.

“That poses a huge risk to Scottish jobs, investment and living standards, which is why we will do all we can to secure the least damaging Brexit possible.”

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “On the back of continued economic growth and rising revenue, Scotland’s deficit fell again in 2017-18.

“Looking at the wider economic picture, these figures – along with recent Labour Market Stats, Labour Productivity and GDP figures – show that Scotland is on the right trajectory.

“It also demonstrates that our commitment to sustainable economic growth is the right one and we will continue to stimulate our economy in this way to reduce the deficit.

“Today’s figures also show that offshore revenue has increased by £1 billion.

“This comes on the back of recent analysis by the Oil and Gas Authority that production this year is expected to be 18% higher than in 2014.

“Separately, the latest Fraser of Allander Oil and Gas survey also shows that net confidence of oil and gas contractors is at the highest level since spring 2013.

“Scotland continues to perform well against other parts of the UK.

“The latest EY Attractiveness Survey showed that Scotland remains the top UK region for foreign direct investment (FDI) projects outside of London.

“With the limited economic powers currently at our disposal, the actions we are taking to promote sustainable economic development are helping to ensure that the key economic indicators are moving in the right direction.

“Brexit is by far the biggest threat to this progress – and it is essential that the UK Government commits to remaining in the Single Market and the Customs Union to minimise the potential damage.”

The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2017-18 report was announced  on Wednesday by Scotland’s Chief Statistician.

The main findings of GERS include:

  • Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea, Scottish public sector revenue was estimated as £60.0 billion (8.0 per cent of UK revenue). Of this, £1.3 billion was North Sea revenue. Scottish non-North Sea revenue was £58.6 billion (7.8% of UK revenue).
  • Non-North Sea revenue increased from £56.6 billion in 2016-17, an increase of 3.6%.
  • Scotland’s illustrative share of North Sea revenue increased from £266 million in 2016-17 to £1.3 billion, reflecting an increase in total UK North Sea revenue.
  • Including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue, Scotland’s public sector revenue is equivalent to £11,052 per person, £306 less than the UK average. Excluding North Sea revenue, it is £10,808 per person, £533 less than the UK average.
  • Total expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the Scottish Government, UK Government, and all other parts of the public sector was £73.4 billion. This is equivalent to 9.3 per cent of total UK public sector expenditure, and £13,530 per person, which is £1,576 per person greater than the UK average.

On Scotland’s current budget balance for 2017-18 — the difference between total revenue and current expenditure (i.e. excluding capital investment) — the GERS report said:

  • Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, there was a deficit of £9.3 billion (5.5% of GDP).
  • Excluding North Sea revenue, there was a deficit of £10.6 billion (6.8% of GDP).
  • For the UK as a whole, there was a surplus of £1.3 billion.

On Scotland’s Net Fiscal Balance 2017-18 — the difference between total revenue and total public sector expenditure including capital investment — the GERS report said:

  • Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, there was a deficit of £13.4 billion (7.9% of GDP).
  • Excluding North Sea revenue, there was a deficit of £14.8 billion (9.5% of GDP).
  • For the UK as a whole, there was a deficit of £39.4 billion (1.9 per cent of GDP).