Deutsche fund manager sees 45% chance of no Brexit

Deutsche Bank’s asset management arm DWS said on Friday it now sees a 45% chance that Britain will not leave the European Union at all, according to a Reuters report.

The view is an outlier from the consensus.

Goldman Sachs has a 25% probability on Brexit not happening at all, while Nomura sees that scenario at 30% and ING at 10%.

The prospects of a UK snap election, a second referendum or even revoking Brexit altogether have climbed this month. 

DWS, which manages about 719 billion euros, raised its probability of “no Brexit” to 45% from 40% in August. 

If Britain were to hold another referendum, DWS said it expected the “Vote Leave” campaign to start with a “severe disadvantage”, especially if the alternative was a hard version of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s proposed deal. 

“Other paths toward ‘No Brexit’ include snap elections and/or revoking Article 50 if, at some point, that is the only way to stop ‘No Deal’,” the German asset manager said in a note to clients.