The latest UK Powerhouse report by law firm Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) predicts that Edinburgh will be among the top five performing cities in the UK for employment by the end of this year, with Aberdeen bouncing back best in output.
The report reveals a contrasting picture in terms of gross value added (GVA) growth and employment prospects as Scotland emerges from lockdown restrictions.
“At the end of last year, Edinburgh was in the top five cites in the UK for economic output, while Aberdeen was bottom of the league table with a 7.7% annual fall in GVA,” said the report.
“In terms of year-on-year employment growth, Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Glasgow were among the bottom 20 cities at the end of 2020, as Covid-19 restrictions continued to bite.
“By the end of this year, all three Scottish powerhouse cities are expected to see a significant recovery in output, with Aberdeen rising from bottom of the table in Q4 2020, to 13th by the end of Q4 2021, with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in GVA.
“Glasgow is predicted to be just outside the top 20 with a 6.4% rise in GVA, while Edinburgh is expected to have fallen from the top five, to the bottom 20 with a 6.2% growth in economic output.
“Edinburgh is expected to surge to become the 5th best performing city in the UK for year-on-year employment growth, with a 2.1% increase.
“Glasgow is set to feature in the top 20, on 0.4% and Aberdeen will be mid-table on -0.5%.
“Only 36% of cities in the report are expected to increase employment levels in Q4 2021, making Edinburgh and Glasgow’s performance respectable, as businesses look to recover lost ground.”