By Mark McSherry
Baillie Gifford’s £2.8 billion Monks Investment Trust plc said on Wednesday it reported a net asset value (NAV) total return of +6.3% for the six months to October 31, 20204, compared to +8.1% for the comparative index (FTSE World in sterling).
The share price total return was +3.1%.
The largest investments of the fund include Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, Amazon.com, Prosus, Martin Marietta Materials, TSMC, Elevance Health, Ryanair and DoorDash.
Monks said it has continued to buy back its shares at a discount to NAV. The company bought back 15 million of its own shares over the six months at a cost of £176 million and an average discount of 9.1%.
Since the fund started its buyback programme in January 2022 it has bought back 54 million shares at a total cost of £582 million and an average discount of 8.6%. This represents 22.9% of the share capital outstanding at the end of December 2021.
A year ago, Monks acknowledged “a run of poor relative returns” in recent years — but in July 2024 announced “an encouraging return to positive relative performance” for the year to April 30, 2024, with net asset value (NAV) total return at +17.6% and share price total return at +19.1% — matching the FTSE World Index return of +19.1%.
The managers of Monks — Spencer Adair, Malcolm MacColl and Helen Xiong — wrote on Wednesday: “We recognise that share price performance in recent years has been disappointing. However, amid continued signs of progress from our portfolio holdings, we are increasingly confident in the portfolio’s ability to deliver attractive returns for shareholders in the years ahead.”
The share price of the Monks fund is up about 30% for the past 12 months.
The managers added: “In the first half of the financial year the company produced a net asset value (NAV) total return of +6.3% compared to +8.1% for the comparative index (FTSE World in sterling). The share price total return was +3.1%.
“This represents continued progress in the recovery of the portfolio’s NAV which has increased by +29.2% in the twelve months to 31 October 2024, modestly ahead of the benchmark index’s return of +26.1% over the same period.
“The portfolio’s NAV performance lagged the stock market in the past six months for two key reasons. First, some very large businesses have found strong favour in markets based on their scale and technology advantages in an emerging era of artificial intelligence. We share that excitement.
“The company is invested in the likes of Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta and Amazon. But we do not hold all the biggest businesses in this space, and in some cases hold them in smaller sizes than the index, and this has detracted from our relative returns. Those deliberate choices reflect the return opportunities we see elsewhere in the portfolio.
“The second reason has been the poor share price performance of a subset of our healthcare holdings. Elevance Health and Novo Nordisk have both suffered share price falls on disappointing news. Elevance is the second largest US health insurer after United Health, which we also own within the portfolio.
“We believe a growing need for health insurance coverage (as the population ages and treatment becomes more expensive) provides a structural tailwind for growth in the years ahead. The recent weakness in Elevance’s shares is a result of its government-supported Medicaid customers falling as eligibility criteria are tightened post-pandemic.
“This has increased the company’s medical loss ratio and weighed on margins, but we believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Elevance’s pricing power should allow it to grow its margins again and deliver sustainable double-digit earnings growth over the long term.
“Novo Nordisk could become one of the scale providers of weight loss drugs to a vast and structurally undersupplied market. Its current drug (Wegovy) is driving strong growth for the business, whilst there has been exciting potential shown in late-stage trials of a more efficacious iteration called CagriSema (which has the potential of up to 25% weight loss).
“Recently, its shares fell following disappointing results from a small trial of weight loss pills (existing products are taken by injection). This looks overdone to us in the context of the overall opportunity. We believe that Novo’s significant investment in capacity and its scalable manufacturing process leave it positioned to grow materially from here.
“Finally, Moderna’s revenues continue to fall from Covid vaccine highs. We have been disappointed by the company’s respiratory syncytial virus vaccine which took too long to reach the market. While the platform potential of its mRNA technology remains exciting, and progress in personalised cancer vaccines is encouraging, we want to see improved commercial execution from the business as it seeks to become a multi-drug company.
“We have seen stronger results from other healthcare holdings in the portfolio. Alnylam Pharmaceuticals’ pioneering drugs restrict the production of specific genes that can cause disease. It reached a significant milestone after positive results from its late-stage trial to treat a rare heart condition.
“This could multiply its addressable patient population tenfold. We took some profits on shareholders’ behalf after the share price rose by 80% but remain excited by the company’s potential to address even larger patient populations …”