JP Morgan predicts independent Scotland by 2019

Investment bank JP Morgan said on Wednesday it expects Scotland to vote for independence and introduce its own currency before the UK leaves the European Union in 2019.

In last week’s referendum, Scotland voted in favour of remaining in the EU by 62% to 38% — but the UK voted to leave the EU by 51.9% to 48.1%.

“Intersecting the UK’s EU exit process is likely to be pressure to hold a new referendum on Scottish independence, which we expect will ultimately generate a vote shortly before the UK leaves the EU in 2019,” JP Morgan economist Malcolm Barr wrote in a note to clients.

“Our base case is that Scotland will vote for independence and institute a new currency at that point.”

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is due to meet European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Wednesday afternoon to outline Scotland’s case for remaining in the European Union.

Sturgeon said she will make Scotland’s position clear to representatives of the major groups in the European Parliament and to the President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz.

All 32 council areas in Scotland returned majorities to remain in the EU.