‘Worst-case’ Brexit could cost oil industry £500m

The trade body for the UK oil and gas industry has warned UK prime minister Theresa May the industry’s cost of trade in goods could rise from £600 million a year to £1.1 billion under a “worst-case” Brexit where the UK reverts to WTO rules with the EU and the rest of the world.

Oil & Gas UK wrote to May highlighting research findings that assess the potential impact and opportunities of Brexit on the sector.

The research showed that around £73 billion worth of oil and gas related trade flows between the UK and the rest of world and £61 billion of this is relates to traded goods, which may be subject to tariffs, with services accounting for the remaining £12 billion.

It showed that under the current “status-quo” scenario with the UK as part of the EU, the total cost of this trade in goods is around £600 million per annum.

Under a worst-case scenario where the UK reverts to WTO rules with the EU and the rest of the world, the likely cost of trade will almost double to around £1.1 billion per annum, assuming trading behaviours remain unchanged.

However, the research showed that if the UK can negotiate minimal tariffs with the EU and improved tariffs with the rest of the world, the total cost of trade could fall by around £100 million per annum to £500 million.

Oil & Gas UK CEO Deirdre Michie said: “Oil & Gas UK is an apolitical organisation representing a large and diverse membership where there will be a variety of views.

“While the trade body can’t take a position on Brexit, we commissioned the research because we need to understand the possible impact on our industry – and the possible opportunities – from exiting the EU.

“We also identified other EU policy issues as critical to the oil and gas industry and will require negotiation with European counterparts, as well as discussions at the domestic level between Government, regulators and industry during the Brexit process.

“During the global industry downturn, our industry has continued to focus on increasing its production efficiency, and on its unit operating costs which have improved by almost 50%.

“We are becoming a more globally competitive industry, but we continue to be very sensitive to any additional burdens either in relation to cost, or restrictions on the movement of key personnel required for critical operations.

“There are still up to 20 billion barrels of oil and gas to recover from the UKCS and, if properly supported, our already world-class supply chain could double its turnover by 2035.

“Oil & Gas UK would welcome discussions with Government officials to outline industry’s concerns and opportunities and help identify a path forward during Brexit negotiations.

“Our request of Government is that any change, whether domestic or European, is managed in a manner that minimises risk to the oil and gas industry and provides predictability and clarity wherever possible, through constructive dialogue and consultation.”