Support for independence at record 58% – Ipsos MORI

Ipsos MORI’s latest Scottish Political Monitor, run in partnership with STV News, has found the highest level of support for independence yet recorded among the Scottish public.

“Among those who would be likely to vote in an independence referendum, 58% say they would vote Yes while 42% would vote No,” said Ipsos MORI.

“Almost two thirds (64%) of Scots say that the UK Government should allow another independence referendum to be held within the next five years if the SNP wins a majority of seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections – while a third (34%) say that the UK Government should not allow this.”

The monitor shows the SNP currently has a very strong lead in voting intention for both constituency (58%) and list (47%) votes in next May’s Scottish Parliament elections.

The Scottish Conservatives are currently polling at 19% in second place for both votes.

First Minster Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings are extremely positive.

About 72% of the Scottish public say they are satisfied with the job she’s doing as First Minister, while 24% are dissatisfied – giving a ‘net’ satisfaction rating of 49%.  

This compares with negative ‘net’ satisfaction ratings for the Conservatives’ Douglas Ross (-17%), Labour’s Richard Leonard (-25%), and the Liberal Democrats’ Willie Rennie (-1%).

About 76% of Scots are dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as UK Prime Minister, the lowest ratings Ipsos MORI has ever recorded for him in Scotland. 19% are satisfied with him while 5% don’t know.

UK Labour leader Keir Starmer is the only party leader other than Nicola Sturgeon to receive a positive net satisfaction rating from the Scottish public (16%). 44% are satisfied with the way he is doing his job and 27% are dissatisfied, while 29% don’t know.

Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,045 adults aged 16+ across Scotland by telephone between October 2 and 9.

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “Our latest poll will put a spring in the step of nationalists but makes grim reading for unionists.

“The Scottish public have shifted even further towards supporting an independent Scotland, with record numbers now saying they would vote Yes.

“Of course we are still a long way out from next May’s Holyrood elections, but SNP support currently looks very strong, buoyed by Nicola Sturgeon’s high satisfaction ratings among Scottish voters.

“Our poll suggests that there will be significant public pressure for the UK Government to transfer powers to the Scottish Parliament to hold a second independence referendum if the SNP win a majority at next year’s Holyrood elections.”

About the Author

Mark McSherry
Dalriada Media LLC sites are edited by veteran news journalist Mark McSherry, a former staff editor and reporter with Reuters, Bloomberg and major newspapers including the South China Morning Post, London's Sunday Times and The Scotsman. McSherry's journalism has also appeared in The Washington Post, The Guardian, The Independent, The New York Times, London's Evening Standard and Forbes. McSherry is also a professor of journalism and communication arts in universities and colleges in New York City. Scottish-born McSherry has an MBA from the University of Edinburgh and a Certificate in Global Affairs from New York University.