Social protection costs up, Scots spending tops £117bn

Total expenditure for Scotland in 2024-25 by the Scottish Government, UK Government and “all other parts of the public sector” was £117.6 billion, according to the Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland 2024-25 (GERS) report published on Wednesday.

Scottish public sector revenue was estimated as £91.4 billion.

The report said the “Net Fiscal Balance 2024-25” — what it called the difference between total revenue and total public sector expenditure including capital investment — was a “notional deficit” for the Scottish Government of about £26.5 billion or 11.7% of Scottish GDP.

“Spending increased by £6.1 billion (5.5%), reflecting increases in spending on social protection and health,” said the Scottish Government.

The report said falling North Sea revenue contributed to a deterioration in Scotland’s “net fiscal balance,” while expenditure grew faster than onshore revenue.

“Scotland’s net fiscal balance has worsened since last year, with North Sea revenue falling for a second year in a row,” said the report.

“Excluding the North Sea the net fiscal balance also worsened, with growth in onshore revenue, primarily due to income tax, slower than growth in spending, which was driven by spending on social protection and health.”

The Scottish Government added: “The 2024-25 Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland statistics show Scotland’s £91.4 billion revenue was enough to cover all day-to-day devolved spending and all reserved social security, including the State Pension, which amounts to £84.9 billion.

“Devolved revenue grew by 9.7% in 2024-25, as devolved expenditure increased by 6.8%. However, the report shows Scotland’s net fiscal balance worsening as oil and gas revenues fell.”

The Scottish Government’s Finance Secretary Shona Robison said: “The decisions we have taken here in Scotland are helping support sustainable public finances. For the fourth year in a row, devolved revenues have grown faster than devolved expenditure.

“Scotland’s public finances are better than many other parts of the UK, with the third highest revenue per person in the UK, behind only London and the South East.

“The GERS statistics reflect only the current constitutional arrangements – of Scotland as part of the UK – and not an independent Scotland with its own policy, decisions on defence spending and the economy.

“GERS allocates Scotland a population share of reserved UK spending rather than accounting for real expenditure. For example, UK defence expenditure is listed as £5.1 billion, but only £2.1 billion was actually spent with industry in Scotland in 2023-24.

“Being taken out of the EU, against the will of the people of Scotland, has also hit Scotland’s revenues by £2.3 billion and the higher cost of UK government debt adds £500 million to the deficit.

“Falling oil prices and a decrease in extraction present challenges going forward, but we are clear in our support for a just transition for Scotland’s valued oil and gas sector, which recognises the maturity of the North Sea basin and is in line with our climate change commitments and energy security.”

The UK government said: “The Scottish Government’s Government Expenditure and Revenue (GERS) figures for 2024-25 show that people in Scotland benefit by £2,669 more per head of additional spending compared to the UK average, as a result of the redistribution of wealth throughout the UK, and the impact of our Plan for Change.

“This is an increase of £358 on the previous year …

“In 2024-25, £91.4 billion in tax receipts was raised in Scotland through devolved and reserved taxation, compared to £117.6 billion in public spending for Scotland. That works out to 8.0 per cent of UK revenue and 9.1 per cent of spending.

“The figures also reveal that the ‘notional deficit’, or net fiscal balance, in Scotland grew to around £26.5 billion, or 11.7 per cent of GDP, more than double the UK deficit of 5.1 per cent of GDP. This is an increase of £5.1 billion on the previous year …

“The UK Government is committed to retaining the Barnett Formula and funding arrangements agreed with the Scottish Government through the Fiscal Framework, which enables this higher spending for Scotland. We are also committed to working in partnership with the Scottish Government to drive economic growth in Scotland as part of our Plan for Change.

“Despite this, the Scottish Government recently confirmed that its policy is to end the current application of the Barnett formula in Scotland, a move that would mean a funding gap of more than £14 billion that the Scottish Government needed to manage.”