New poll puts independence support at 55%

The latest poll from the Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor, run in partnership with STV News, shows support for independence five percentage points higher than it was in early May, with “Yes” taking a clear lead.

“Among those likely to vote either Yes or No in an independence referendum, 55% say they would vote Yes while 45% would vote No,” said Ipsos MORI.

“All age groups except the oldest — those aged 55+ — are more likely to say they would vote Yes than that they would vote No.”

Ipsos MORI Scotland MD Emily Gray said: “This latest poll from Ipsos MORI and STV News indicates that the argument for Scottish independence is far from over, with a slight improvement for the Yes side.

“Given the margins of error around polling estimates, however, neither the Yes or No camps should be confident of victory at this point.

“The Yes camp may be benefiting from what has been a very bad week for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives at Westminster, with fieldwork taking place after heated debate about MPs’ second jobs.

“This is certainly reflected in Johnson’s own ratings, which have fallen to a new low.”

Boris Johnson’s ratings in Scotland have hit a new low with 80% of Scots saying they are dissatisfied with the job he is doing as UK Prime Minister.

“Nicola Sturgeon is still the highest rated party leader, and Scots are overwhelmingly positive about the Scottish Government’s handling of the vaccine rollout,” said Ipsos MORI.

“The public are not uncritical of the Scottish Government’s performance though – more think the Scottish Government has done a bad job of improving education and the NHS since the May elections than think it has done a good job.”

On Scottish Parliament voting intentions, the SNP retains a strong lead in voting intention for both constituency and list votes.

The Scottish Conservatives remain in second place on both votes, with Scottish Labour close behind.

Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,107 adults aged 16+ across Scotland. Interviews were conducted by telephone November 22-29, 2021.

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Mark McSherry
Dalriada Media LLC sites are edited by veteran news journalist Mark McSherry, a former staff editor and reporter with Reuters, Bloomberg and major newspapers including the South China Morning Post, London's Sunday Times and The Scotsman. McSherry's journalism has also appeared in The Washington Post, The Guardian, The Independent, The New York Times, London's Evening Standard and Forbes. McSherry is also a professor of journalism and communication arts in universities and colleges in New York City. Scottish-born McSherry has an MBA from the University of Edinburgh and a Certificate in Global Affairs from New York University.