Scotland’s exporters to the United States have reacted to US president Donald Trump’s new 10% tariffs — and have called for negotiations to continue.
Trump unveiled plans that mean the import tax will apply at varying rates for different countries, affecting important Scottish products like whisky and salmon.
The US is a hugely important market for Scottish whisky and salmon exports.
In 2024, United States retained its long-held position as the largest export market for Scotch whisky by value at £971 million. The US is currently the second biggest market after France for Scottish salmon exports, accounting for 27% of the total value.
The US president confirmed that from 5am Thursday in the UK a 25% tariff would be imposed on all foreign cars imported to the US – a move which experts fear could cost 25,000 jobs in the UK car industry.
Trump said tariffs of 10% would apply to other products from the UK – the same level as the global “baseline” he set for countries around the world as part of his “reciprocal” measures.
Trump said: “April 2, 2025 will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again.”
REACTION:
Scotch Whisky Association spokesperson: “The industry is disappointed that Scotch Whisky could be impacted by these tariffs. We welcome the intensive efforts by the UK government to reach a deal with the US administration, and we continue to support this measured and pragmatic approach towards a mutually beneficial resolution.”
Tavish Scott, chief executive of Salmon Scotland: “Around a quarter of the salmon exported from Scotland is for the American market, where our premium product is increasingly popular.
“We have great confidence that Americans will continue to buy nutritious Scottish salmon, particularly when the country is reliant on imports to meet US consumer demand.
“Salmon producers want a business-like and stable trade relationship with the USA, so we support the UK Government’s efforts to achieve that outcome through a calm and measured approach.”
Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes: “The tariffs proposed will clearly have an impact on many Scottish businesses for which the US is an important export market.
“We do not believe unilateral measures by the US are the answer and we are concerned about the negative impact of trade barriers on the Scottish economy.
“We urge the US and all parties to come together and work towards mutually beneficial resolutions.
“We greatly value the strong social, cultural and economic ties Scotland shares with the US and we will work to ensure these continue to flourish.”
Paul Diggle, Chief Economist, Aberdeen: “There is a meaningful risk that the announcements yesterday, as dramatic as they were, do not represent ‘peak tariffs’. We still think additional sector specific tariffs are coming, including on semiconductors, copper, lumber and pharmaceuticals.
“Indeed, these products were mentioned in the executive order, specifying that the reciprocal tariff policy does not apply to them, therefore leaving open that specific rates will be coming soon. On the other hand, that does seem to mean that sector-specific tariffs and reciprocal tariffs aren’t additive.
“Additionally, the Executive Order provides the President with the right to modify tariff rates in the event of retaliatory measures, meaning rates on some trade partners could be pushed higher still.
“There is still scope for US tariffs to eventually settle at a lower level, and this is probably still a widespread expectation.
“The 10% global baseline is likely a floor, but structuring the reciprocal tariff as an additional rate on top of that at least leaves some chance of it then coming down.
“So far, the administration appears far more tolerant of market weakness than in Trump’s first term. Indeed, low bond yields and a weaker dollar may be actively helpful market moves give the administration’s preferences.
“The net impact on the US economy will almost certainly be stagflationary, although the magnitudes of the price level increase and GDP hit are hard to pin down.
“The shock to growth and inflation is sensitive to whether tariffs are perceived as temporary or permanent, the scope for firms to absorb price rises in their margins, currency moves, and how financial markets react, among other things.
“A crude rule-of-thumb is that every 1 percentage point increase in the US weighted average tariff rate translates into a 0.1 percentage point rise in the price level and knocks 0.05-0.1 percent off GDP. This would suggest that the full increase in US tariffs yesterday and in recent weeks could add 2% to the price level and push GDP down by 1-2%.
“There is a potential for some offsetting economic benefits if the roughly $0.6 trillion (~2% GDP) which could be raised by the tariffs finance tax cuts rather than deficit reduction. However, if the revenue is ‘used’ in this way, it would make negotiating away the tariff increases in the future more difficult.
“The Fed faces a difficult trade-off. Policy makers have previously talked about tariffs having only a ‘transitory’ impact on US inflation, but given the recent sharp increase in inflation expectations it may be difficult for the Fed to look-through this impact.”
Liz Cameron, CEO of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce: “There is no doubt the introduction of hefty US tariffs on UK businesses will be very damaging for our economy.
“Scotland’s international businesses are already facing huge pressures, and many will struggle to survive the imminent imposition of these Tariffs by the Trump administration.
“This latest blow is further evidence that businesses urgently need even more support both at home and abroad if we are to deliver growth and protect and create much-needed jobs.
“The tariffs are particularly disappointing given how much Scottish businesses have to offer the US, from our fabulous food and drink to our manufacturing, engineering and scientific expertise and a whisky trade which alone is worth one billion annually.
“We will be ensuring that message is heard loud and clear during the current SCC trade delegations to New York and Tartan Week where we are working with both governments to promote international exports and inward investment.
“Whilst we understand negotiations in business are often tough and protracted, we urge our UK and Holyrood politicians to continue engaging constructively in the interests of our 12,000 Scottish member firms, and their workforces, to deliver positive results.”
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB: “The baseline tariff rate is 10%, with rates varying for each country depending on how they levy tariffs on US imports. The UK has come off unscathed, with tariffs set at 10%, along with Brazil, Australia and Sadi Arabia. EU exports to the US are subject to double the UK’s rate at 20%, and Mexico and Canada have avoided further tariffs.
“Asian nations have been hit the hardest, with Vietnam subject to a 46% rate, and Cambodia at 49%. There has been whipsaw price action in the aftermath of Trump’s announcement. There were no carve outs or exemptions either for individual countries or for certain sectors, which spooked traders. In post-market trading, tech, autos, and materials sectors are lower, as expected.”
Shevaun Haviland, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce: “The Government has kept a cool head so far and must continue to negotiate. This is a marathon not a sprint, and getting the best deal for the UK is what matters most.
“But no-one will escape the fallout from these decisions, there will be an increased risk of trade diversion, and it will wreak havoc on businesses communities across the world.
“Orders will drop, prices will rise, and global economic demand will be weaker as a result. This is a lose-lose situation for everyone.
“So, it is vitally important that the government does not give up on negotiations. Tariffs can be lifted at any time and the US has signalled its willingness to do some form of deal with us.
“The UK is not without influence, our bilateral trade with the US is worth £300bn, we have £500bn invested there and it has £700bn tied up in our economy. There is a high-level of co-dependency and we are speaking to businesses across the UK on options for government to consider.
“There are no winners in the current scenario, negotiations will take time and will inevitably involve compromise. Any decisions on taxes will need to be taken very carefully, and the government must consider all its fiscal options.
“It should keep everything on the table during talks, but retaliatory tariffs should only be a last resort.
“Many firms, especially SMEs, will now be facing difficult decisions and we urge government to do all it can to provide practical support to them.
“We would advise businesses to immediately start negotiations with their US customers on managing the impact of these tariffs – depending on their contracts, there may be deals to be done. In the long-term exploring replacement markets, especially the EU, CPTPP countries or other trade deals, due to be made later this year, will be options.
“Support may also be available from the British Business Bank’s Growth Guarantee scheme which can offer financial support to firms with cashflow issues.”
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter: “Donald Trump wants the richest economy in the world to be even wealthier, and tariffs are going to be his primary way of achieving this. A universal baseline tariff of 10% will apply … with certain industries and countries targeted with even higher rates. The President said his administration is being ‘kind’ by providing discounts on what they believe the effective tariff rate is on US products. Perhaps this is a sign that Trump still cares about what the market thinks, but a more cynical view may suggest he could come back for more and raise tariffs further, particularly if countries retaliate following this announcement.
“For the UK, facing a 10% tariff, it has perhaps got off more lightly compared to other countries and the European Union. But this is still significant and will hit industries hard, particularly given the likes of car manufacturers face an even harsher rate. Whether or not this latest round of tariffs is additional to those already announced remains uncertain, as does the extent of any opportunity to negotiate.
“Trump has made it clear that this is the end of the established economic order, and he wants America calling the shots. These tariffs are stark and perhaps more aggressive than many in the market had been expecting. Indeed, Trump scheduled this press conference for after the stock market closes for good reason, with the US futures market falling sharply as a result of this speech.
“Ultimately, Trump is playing a high risk game. He is risking stoking a fresh inflationary spiral in the hope that over time jobs and industry are restored to the US. This is following an election campaign where he promised to lower inflation and bring interest rates down. But, tariffs have rarely ended in positive outcomes, and signs are already pointing to weakening consumer and business sentiment and the risk of a slowing US economy.
“Trump continues to tout tax cuts, but there remains very little detail on what this means or when they will come about. Markets will be wanting more detail on both this and further deregulation, and given the scale of these tariffs that may need to come sooner rather than later for US equities. For businesses it remains a very volatile and uncertain economic period, and this will be reflected by markets for the time being. Investors will need be patient and calm, staying invested for the long-term.”