Reaction as UK inflation rises to 3.5% in April

UK Central Bank

The UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that UK inflation rose more than expected to a 15-month high of 3.5% in April as higher utility bills and tax rises took effect.

The news dampened expectations of interest rate cuts from the UK central bank.

The 3.5% figure was higher than the 3.3% predicted by analysts polled by Reuters and the 2.6% recorded in March.

The ONS said the rise in inflation was driven by higher energy costs after UK regulators raised the household price cap. Rises in water bills and road tax and higher air fares also contributed, the ONS said.

Services inflation rose to 5.4% in April — more than the 4.8% predicted by some analysts and well ahead of the 4.7% recorded in March.

REACTION:

Luke Bartholomew, Deputy Chief Economist, at Aberdeen: “Inflation was always going to jump higher today given movements in energy and other administered prices, but the reported increase is bigger than expected.

“In particular, services inflation looks especially strong, which may suggest the various cost shocks such as the increases in National Insurance and the living wage are hitting firms and starting to be passed on into final Prices.

“Certainly, this will reinforce the concerns voiced by BoE chief economist Huw Pill that underlying inflation pressures are sticky and so there is less room for the Bank to cut rates.

“Nonetheless, we think a quarterly profile of rate cuts remains appropriate, but the chance of the easing cycle speeding up any time soon has fallen.”

Scottish Friendly savings expert Kevin Brown: “Today’s inflation spike is a hard blow for millions of UK households who dared to believe the worst was behind them. After years of punishing price rises, a near 1 percentage point leap to 3.5% is the last thing families need — especially when every corner of the household budget already feels stretched.
“But while this surge is a nasty shock, it wasn’t entirely out of the blue. April is when a raft of providers – from water and energy firms to broadband and mobile networks – hit households with their annual price hikes. Ofgem’s energy price cap change added more fuel to the fire.
“That won’t be much consolation for those still reeling from three years of inflationary pain. However, the silver lining is that this spike should prove short-lived. Inflation is expected to climb a little further into the summer before easing back in the final months of the year.
“It also helps that homes typically use less energy at this time of year, particularly with the recent spell of good weather.
“Crucially, we don’t think this alters anything when it comes to interest rates. We still expect the Monetary Policy Committee to hold rates in June, before delivering two more cuts by year-end, or four in total for 2025.
“That will offer some much-needed relief – but first, households may have to grit their teeth through another few months of rising costs.”
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown: “April was awful in terms of price rises for consumers. With many bills increases already flagged, inflation was always set to rise sharply, but the jump was even bigger than expected.
“While rises in gas, electricity, water, transport, and mobile phone calls were forecast, consumer also had to pay higher prices if they splashed out on enjoying themselves, with leisure and recreation costs also rising.
“But it’s been tough for retailers, who haven’t been able to pass on higher costs to customers. Instead, the price of furniture and clothing has fallen. Consumers are keener to spend money on enjoying themselves rather than buying more stuff and seem more inclined to swallow higher prices if they are being entertained.”

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown: “Inflation is back with a bang: like an unwanted house guest, breaking down the door, emptying the fridge and bleeding you dry. The spike in prices is the biggest we’ve seen since the cost-of-living crisis, and even larger than had been forecast. It demonstrates just how awful April was this year for our pockets. Unfortunately, there’s every sign this unwanted guest could end up sticking around for months.

“Huge hikes in household bills shoulder the bulk of the blame, including the £111 rise in the energy price cap, the £123 rise in water bills and the £109 increase in council tax. Water bills rose faster than any time since 1988 – more than 35 years ago. It means the basic necessities are swallowing more of our monthly budgets than ever. A month earlier, electricity had been down 8.8% in a year and gas 12%. In April electricity was up 4.6% in a year and gas 12.2%.

“Inflation in the cost of transport also drove inflation higher. There was the usual rise in car tax, but a change in the rules also meant the rates for some new petrol and diesel cars doubled, squeezing these drivers even harder.

“Air fares rocketed, some of which was down to higher air passenger duty, but much of it was a consequence of where Easter fell this year. This time around all the measurements were taken during the pricey school holiday period – whereas this time last year prices were measured outside of the break. As a result, we saw the second highest April spike since records began. Easter also forced a big shift in prices for recreation and culture – particularly overseas holidays  –  as businesses hiked prices in this peak period.

“On the flip side, petrol prices put the brakes on inflation to some extent. The average price of both diesel and petrol fell – 3.1p per litre and 3p per litre respectively –  during the month, as concerns about the global economy depressed the oil price and brought savings at the pumps.

“Businesses may also have been persuaded to push prices up, to help cover additional payroll costs from a higher national minimum wage and National Insurance bills. It’s shoppers who will ultimately end up paying the price for this on everything from groceries to household goods.

“Food prices fed into higher inflation – up 3.4% (3% a month earlier). Your experience will depend on exactly what you put in the trolley, because some prices have actually fallen over the past year – including rice, pizza, pasta, sugar and jam. There was also a fall over the year in the price of olive oil – a year on from a particularly painful hike. Meanwhile other prices are still rising because of poor weather affecting livestock – so the cost of beef, lamb and butter all rose significantly.

“Clothing yet again behaved differently to a year earlier. This time there were more sales because of the Easter break, so prices fell 1.1% over the month. Last year prices were measured before the holidays hit, when discounting was far less widespread. It means we’re likely to see the opposite effect kick in next month.”