New analysis from Savills reported that a strong fourth quarter capped a “significant recovery” in terms of transactions across Scotland’s residential housing market in 2024 — with the number of sales in the prime market above £500,000 outperforming.
The report said that after a fall in 2023, the number of “net agreed sales” across all price bands in the Scotland’s residential market increased 12% in 2024, supported by “stable mortgage rates.”
It said the number of sales in the market up to £500,000 “which is more reliant on lending” increased by 12% between 2023 and 2024.
However, Scotland’s equity-driven prime market above £500,000 outperformed with a 23% uplift in the number of sales. This was higher than the rest of the UK’s figure of 20%.
“The impact of political and fiscal changes last year was felt more in the relatively smaller part of the prime Scotland market above £750,000, where the number of agreed sales increased annually by 8% during Q4 2024,” said the Savills report.
On the other hand, year-on-year sales growth in the more “needs-based” prime Scottish market between £500,000 to £750,000 reached 30% during Q4 2024.
The report said Edinburgh City was the hub of the prime market, accounting for 43% of £500k+ Scottish agreed home sales last year.
However, prime prices fell by -0.8% in the three months ending December 2024, against a backdrop of more available stock. Indeed, the upper end of the prime market reduced in value more significantly.
“Whilst prime Scotland sales increased in 2024, the number of £500k+ available properties was 24% higher at the end of 2024 compared to the end of the previous year,” said the report.
“This is because properties are taking longer to sell compared to the pandemic years as buyers are exercising more caution due to stretched affordability.
“The sensitive nature of the current market led to a 39% rise last year in the number of £500k+ properties that had a change in their asking price. However, this didn’t have a significant impact on prices.
“According to the Savills prime index, prime Scotland prices showed resilience despite increased availability, with a rather negligible drop of -0.1% in the three months to December 2024.
“This puts prime Scotland prices level with the end of December 2023 but 15.5% higher than in March 2020 before the beginning of the pandemic.
“Prime regional prices outside London also fell slightly at the end of last year, leaving them -1.0% lower than Q4 2023 but 9.5% higher compared to March 2020 before the beginning of the pandemic.”
Savills said prime prices in the country markets surrounding Edinburgh bucked the national trend, with a 0.6% increase in the three months to December 2024. Meanwhile, there was an uptick in £500k+ agreed sales in the Lothians and Borders during the final three months of 2024 compared to the same months of 2023.
In the west of Scotland, available stock levels were “largely under control” especially in the city area of Glasgow with larger homes spending less time on the market in recent months compared to 2023.
Prime Glasgow City prices ended the year 1.2% higher compared to the end of 2023. Alongside price growth, there was also an uptick in £500k+ agreed sales in the hotspots of Newton Mearns, Bothwell, West End, Park, Bearsden and Milngavie.
Prime prices outside Glasgow witnessed a slight annual increase of 0.3% during Q4 2024. Meanwhile, £500k+ agreed sales activity was strong towards the end of the year in Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Helensburgh and the Loch Lomond area.
“Prime Perthshire prices were -3.8% lower in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, which was among the lowest across prime regional markets outside London,” said the report.
“The market here is more challenging above £750,000 although there is still a shortage of good quality rural homes to supply underlying demand. However, buyers are much more hesitant and are avoiding properties that require renovation.
“In Angus and southern Kincardineshire, the number of agreed sales from £350,000 to £500,000 was 56% higher in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023 however the market got quieter towards the end of the year, especially following the UK and Scotland Budgets. There is an expectation of new buyers coming into the market during Q1 2025, subject to further interest rate cuts.
“Available stock levels have been level in the Aberdeen area, with more committed buyers. House prices were largely unchanged throughout 2024 as a consequence. The Aberdeen area market is mostly active between £200,000 and £750,000 and continues to be led by the sought-after AB15 postcode, which includes the city’s West End, Cults, Bieldside, Countesswells and Kingswells areas.”