The latest Noble & Co Whisky Intelligence Report — for October 2025 — said that after two years of volatility, the secondary market for fine and rare whisky “may finally be finding its floor.”
The report analyses performance across April–July 2025 and provides new data on both the secondary auction market and the primary market landscape.
Key findings in the secondary auction market show volumes down 26% year-on-year, total auction value down 48% and an average bottle price of £263, down 29%.
“In contrast, the primary market remains under strain — with production cuts of 30–50%, revenue pressures, and early signs of distress and consolidation,” said Noble & Co.
The report said of the secondary market for fine and rare whisky: “The overall picture is one of a market holding steady rather than accelerating. The indices we track of leading distilleries remained broadly flat across April – July.
“Prices at the very top end — The Macallans, closed distillery releases, and culturally iconic bottlings — continued to find global buyers.
“Compared with the same period in 2024, volumes of sales were down by 26%, with values down by 40%. However, this isn’t any worse than the rolling 12 months and so suggests an element of stabilisation in the market.
“A heavier seasonal cadence of sales in April and May pulled more bottles to the market and nudged overall values higher than the first quarter as normal. The April – July window delivered a functional, liquid market, with a breadth of volume in everyday collectible bottles and selective strength at the very top end. The middle remained watchful and price-sensitive.
“In Q1 2025, the market cleared 12,715 bottles for £3.3m, with an average of £258 per lot. In Q2 2025, activity rose to 14,725 bottles and £4.2m, lifting the average lot to £286. The table above shows several periods of time, we can see that the volume declines have improved recently.
“If this continues into Q3, there will be a clear positive trend that the market has turned.
“The market transacted more bottles in Q2 as is the seasonal norm, including a handful of high-profile trophies, but broad pricing stabilised. Year on year remains grim – we’re still looking at an annual decline in volume of 26%, value of 48% and average price of 29%.”
On the primary market for fine and rare whisky, the report said: “The Scotch whisky industry is facing one of its toughest periods in recent memory. As we know, revenues are under pressure all across the board, and management teams are having to make hard choices about how to respond.
“The strategies we are seeing fall into three broad categories: driving new revenues, cutting costs, and looking for fresh capital.
“Each comes with its own challenges—and none provide an easy fix. When these strategies are insufficient, we believe distilleries will then start to behave in a distressed manner. Those that get ahead of this stage will secure better outcomes we believe …
“For those who are unable to restore revenue or cut costs fast enough, distress is emerging. Many companies appear to be approaching this point, and while buyers are circling, deals are proving to be hard to close.
“Valuation expectations between sellers and buyers remain far apart, with multiple attempted sales failing …
“We are expecting this to shift as 2025 progresses. Distressed acquisitions and mergers are likely to feature in the next chapter of Scotch whisky’s adjustment. A merger offers the opportunity to reshape cost bases, improve pricing power and consolidate distribution channels and may provide access to new markets through merging the channels …
“The industry is beginning to reshape itself in response to a tough environment. Driving new revenues through discounting and diversification has limits. Cost-cutting and production curtailments are more impactful, and equity raises or refinancing are buying time where possible.
“In our view, the combination of oversupply, margin compression, and limited capital availability means that consolidation is inevitable. Now may be a great opportunity to buy spirit and or distilleries if a long-term view is taken.
“There is good news: production cuts today have been laying the groundwork for recovery. The less comfortable truth we flagged last week is that the road back will not be quick, and although single malt whisky will grow exports next year we estimate, production will not see a return to 2019 export levels until at least 2028.”