Offshore Energies UK’s 2025 Business Outlook report launched on Tuesday says that “under the right business conditions” half of the 13-15 billion barrels of oil and gas the UK is projected to need by 2050 “could be produced at home.”

This would add up to £150 billion of gross value to the UK economy on top of the £200 billion from planned production, safeguarding energy security, jobs and lower carbon emissions alongside an acceleration of renewables, said Offshore Energies UK (OEUK).

“The independent Climate Change Committee estimates the UK requires 13-15bn barrels of oil and gas by 2050, the target date for the economy to achieve net zero,” said OEUK.

“The UK is on track to produce 4bn of these barrels. Yet the report finds with the right polices to encourage firms to invest, another 3bn barrels could be produced at home to meet half of the UK’s needs rather than increasing its reliance on imports.

“The report also finds that by 2050, when UK electricity demand has more than doubled, oil and gas will still form a fifth of UK energy needs.

“The cost of energy is critical to wider industrial strategy and economic success. Maintaining homegrown gas supplies is key for the UK’s industrial base.”

Publication of the Business Outlook coincides with government consultations with industry on the future of the North Sea and the oil and gas fiscal regime.

In the coming months interlinked decisions are also expected on the UK Government’s Comprehensive Spending Review and new Industrial Strategy as well as updated environmental guidelines for oil and gas projects.

“The report shows that by making most of homegrown oil and gas while accelerating renewables and low-carbon solutions, the UK can carefully manage its reliance on imports …” said OEUK.

“As the geopolitical outlook remains uncertain, the report details how the UK’s total energy production hit a record low last year and imported over 40% of total energy needs from abroad.”

OEUK chief executive David Whitehouse said: “The future of the North Sea is in our hands. Our report shows as we work together to accelerate renewables the UK must make the most of its own oil and gas – or choose to increase reliance on imports. We’re fully engaged with asking policy makers to choose a pragmatic path to the low carbon, high-growth and secure economy we all want to see.”

“Energy security is national security. In an increasingly volatile world the widening gap between the energy we produce and what we import matters. Secure homegrown oil and gas alongside renewables pays taxes, supports jobs and safeguards the supply chains we need to build our energy future.”

“The Climate Change Committee says to get to net zero by 2050 the UK needs 13bn to 15bn barrels of oil and gas equivalent. Today, we’re on track to produce only 4bn of those barrels in the UK, but with the right polices to encourage firms to invest we could unlock another 3bn barrels and meet half our entire needs. This would add £150bn of gross value to the UK economy, on top of £200bn of economic value from current plans.

“Energy security is national security. In an increasingly volatile world the widening gap between the energy we produce and what we import matters. Accelerating offshore wind, carbon capture and hydrogen alongside homegrown oil and gas pays taxes, supports jobs and safeguards the supply chains we need to build our energy future.”